Key Points:
- XRP declined by 4.94% on Saturday, ending the session at $0.6026.
- Investor sentiment toward the fall in bets on an H1 2024 Fed rate cut resonated.
- On Sunday, SEC vs. crypto chatter, US lawmakers, and scrutiny of SEC activity warrant consideration.
In this article:
The Saturday Overview
On Saturday, XRP declined by 4.94%. Following a 5.23% slide on Friday, XRP ended the session at $0.6026.
Ripple Chief Legal Officer Alderoty Highlighted Another SEC Loss
On Saturday, Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty targeted the SEC, highlighting an SEC loss in the courts. Alderoty shared a Law360 post, saying,
The loss was unrelated to the Ripple case. Nonetheless, the SEC win rate remains relevant. Investors expect the SEC to appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. In July 2023, Judge Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP do not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test.
Investors remain hopeful of the appellate courts upholding the Programmatic Sales ruling. However, a December 2023 court ruling in the SEC v Terraform Labs case created more uncertainty. In December, Judge Rakoff ruled that TerraUSD and Luna are securities.
Since the ruling, the SEC has notified Judges presiding over cases against crypto firms of the Judge Rakoff ruling. The Terraform Labs ruling will likely form part of the appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling.
While the lingering threat of an SEC appeal remains an XRP headwind, the ongoing SEC v Ripple case needs consideration.
SEC v Ripple: SEC Opening Reply Brief Due on March 22, 2024
There were no SEC v Ripple case-related updates for investors to consider on Saturday. Nonetheless, it could be an important week ahead for Ripple and XRP.
According to the amended Court briefing schedule, the SEC must file its remedy-related opening brief by March 22.
The SEC will argue for a punitive penalty to deter crypto firms from breaching Section 5 of the 1933 Securities Act. In July 2023, Judge Torres ruled Ripple breached Section 5 for selling unregistered securities (XRP) to institutional investors.
The remedy-related opening brief could provide clues on the likely penalty Ripple must pay. Ripple could face a punitive penalty if Ripple continued to breach Section 5 of the Securities Act after the complaint.
XRP Price Action
Daily Chart
XRP hovered above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.
An XRP return to the $0.62 handle would support a move to the $0.6609 resistance level. A break above the $0.6609 resistance level would bring the $0.70 handle into play.
SEC vs. crypto chatter warrants investor consideration.
However, a drop below the 50-day EMA could give the bears a run at the trend line, the $0.5740 support level, and the 200-day EMA. Buying pressure could intensify at the trend line. The $0.5740 support level and the 200-day EMA are confluent with the trend line.
The 14-day RSI reading, 50.11, indicates an XRP move to the $0.70 handle before entering overbought territory.
4-Hourly Chart
On the 4-hourly, XRP remained below the 50-day EMA while hovering above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs affirmed bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.
A break above the 50-day EMA would support an XRP move to the $0.6609 resistance level.
However, an XPR drop below the 200-day EMA could bring the trend line and the $0.5740 support level. Buying pressure could intensify at the trend line. The $0.5470 support level is confluent with the trend line.
The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 38.40, suggests an XRP drop to the $0.5740 support level before entering oversold territory.
